The One-Child Policy, which was introduced in 1979, has had a lasting and far-reaching impact on China’s society and economy. The policy resulted in an unprecedented demographic shift in the Chinese population, reducing fertility rates from an average of 5.2 children to 1.8. This was achieved by making it politically and financially difficult for families to have more than one child, with penalties including fines, family planning classes and job losses.
At the time the policy was introduced, China’s population was estimated to be around 900 million people, a figure more than double that of the United States. Despite opposition from some quarters, the One-Child Policy remained in place for nearly 40 years, until it was officially abolished in October 2015.
The immediate consequences of the policy were notable. In the short-term, it succeeded in curtailing the growth rate of population, from an average annual increase of 17 million per year before the policy, to just under 10 million afterwards. It also had the effect of reducing population pressure on the limited resources and infrastructure already in place.
In the longer term, however, the One-Child Policy has had a more profound and lasting effect on China’s society and economy. It has led to a number of changes, both positive and negative, which have had a significant impact on the country’s development.
One of the most notable changes resulting from the One-Child Policy has been a dramatic rise in the average age of the population. The population share of those aged 0-14 declined from 43% in 1979 to 26% in 2014 consequently, while the share of those aged over 65 rose from 5% to 12% over the same period. This ‘ageing’ of the population has significant social and economic implications, as well as having implications for the future labour force.
The policy has also had an effect on gender inequality and sex ratios in the population. As families preferred to have male children, many female fetuses were aborted (or females were abandoned at birth) leading to a distorted gender balance with about 117 males for every 100 females in 2012 (as opposed to around 106/100 prior to the policy). There are also reports of increased levels of domestic violence against women as a result of their reduced value in traditionally male dominated society.
The One-Child Policy has also had a significant impact on marriage and family structures. In traditional Chinese culture, the extended family system is the foundation of society, and the One-Child Policy has drastically reduced the size of families. The number of married couples without children has tripled since the policy came into force, while the number of childless elderly has quadrupled. This has led to increased loneliness and social isolation, with fewer people available to offer care and support to the elderly.
At an economic level, the One-Child Policy has caused a shortage of labour, especially in rural areas where there is little incentive to migrate to urban centres. It has also led to increased wage costs, as businesses have to compete for the diminishing supply of workers.
Finally, the policy has led to a significant rise in the cost of living. This is due to the combination of a shrinking labour force, an ageing population and families having fewer children to provide for. Coupled with rising housing and education costs, this has made it increasingly difficult for Chinese families to maintain their standard of living.
Overall, the One-Child Policy has had a huge impact on Chinese society and economy, resulting in both positive and negative changes. While it has succeeded in curbing population growth and reducing birth rates, its long-term effects on the ageing population, gender imbalance and economic costs may be felt for many years to come.