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US September Nonfarm Payrolls and Market Reaction
On October 6th, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released the US September nonfarm payrolls data. The US added 336,000 nonfarm jobs in September, significantly exceeding expectations of 170,000 and the previous value of 227,000. The US September unemployment rate was also released at 3.8%, surpassing expectations of 3.7% and aligning with the previous value.
Among the subcategories of nonfarm payrolls, the largest proportion still belonged to the service industry, with 234,000 new jobs added. The government sector came in second with an increase of 73,000 jobs, followed by 29,000 new jobs in goods production.
In the subcategory of nonfarm jobs in goods production in September, the manufacturing industry had the largest share with 17,000 new jobs, showing an improvement from the 11,000 jobs added in August. However, it is worth noting that in mid-September, the United Auto Workers (UAW) began a large-scale strike, with UAW members accounting for 56% of the total number of workers in the US automotive manufacturing industry. According to CBS, since the start of the UAW strike, nearly 5,000 auto workers have been laid off by automakers. The negative impact of the strike has not yet been reflected in this month’s nonfarm payroll data, but it is expected to affect the manufacturing subcategory of October’s nonfarm payroll data.
In the service industry, the largest proportion of new jobs came from the leisure and hospitality sector, with 96,000 new jobs. The education and health services sector came in second with 70,000 new jobs, followed by 21,000 new jobs in the professional and business services subcategory. The information sector showed a relatively weak performance in job growth, with a decrease of 5,000 jobs since May.
On October 4th, the largest private healthcare organization in the US, Kaiser Permanente, saw around 75,000 employees go on strike, marking the largest strike in the US healthcare industry in recent years. The healthcare sector has been an important driver in the nonfarm service industry job growth, and if the strike continues, it will pose a downside risk to October’s nonfarm service industry employment.
In the past two years, the strong performance of the US nonfarm payrolls has been driven by an increase in the labor force population. However, in 2020, due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the US labor force population has seen a significant decline, with a decrease of 3.947 million people by the end of 2020. As the pandemic’s impact diminishes and the US government reduces transfer payments to residents, a portion of the population is entering the labor market, fueling the continued strength of the US labor market.
After the release of better-than-expected nonfarm payroll data, the prices of 10-year US Treasuries initially declined before rebounding, indicating a fluctuation in the yield of the 10-year US government bonds. Meanwhile, the US dollar index showed a rapid increase followed by a decline. We believe that the market pricing on that day reflects expectations of a weakening labor market amid the backdrop of strikes in the US. From the perspective of one of the Federal Reserve’s policy objectives, the labor market (employment), the expectation of further tightening by the Federal Reserve has diminished.
US September PPI: Some Repeated Fluctuations Due to Energy Prices
Buoyed by energy prices, US September PPI data exceeded expectations: US September PPI YoY was 2.2%, higher than the expected 1.6% and the previous value of 2%, while the US September core PPI YoY was 2.7%, higher than the expected 2.3% and the previous value of 2.5%. US September PPI MoM was 0.5%, higher than the expected 0.3% but lower than the previous value of 0.7%. US September core PPI MoM was 0.3%, higher than both the expected and previous value of 0.2%.
The YoY value of core PPI continued to slow down, while the YoY value of overall PPI rebound